The global economy faces its biggest danger since the financial crisis


The impact of the Covid-19 outbreak on economic prospects is severe

Growth was weak but stabilising until the coronavirus Covid-19 hit. Restrictions on movement of people, goods and services, and containment measures such as factory closures have cut manufacturing and domestic demand sharply in China. The impact on the rest of the world through business travel and tourism, supply chains, commodities and lower confidence is growing.

Base scenario:
temporary blow
  • Severe, short-lived downturn in China, where GDP growth falls below 5% in 2020 after 6.1% in 2019, but recovering to 6.4% in 2021.
  • In Japan, Korea, Australia, growth also hit hard then gradual recovery.
  • Impact less severe in other economies but still hit by drop in confidence and supply chain disruption.


Image Credit: Empty JFK airport this Thursday